Please tap the {{heart}} button, which helps new readers find All Predictions Wrong.
Last year there was so much going on – a presidential election, Taylor Swift taking over the world – that this space neglected to run its annual Bad Predictions Review. That oversight is corrected here.
I don’t mean my own bad predictions, which are too numerous to recount. Turns out bad predictions are a running theme of modern life. Let’s look at some.
We’ll get the election out of the way first.
HARRIS PREDICTED TO WIN BY NEARLY EVERY MAJOR FORECASTER: Newsweek, the morning of the vote.
Nancy Pelosi, 2016: “Donald Trump will never, ever be president.”
John Heilemann, NBC News analyst, May 2024: “It is inconceivable that Trump wins the popular vote.”
Michael Moore, October 2024: “Trump is certain to go down in flames.”
Pollster Ann Selzer, the week before the vote – Harris has “a clear lead” in Iowa. Trump won Iowa 55.9 percent to 42.7. Afterward Selzer said she would “review her data.”
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, September 2024: “Harris is expected to get 286 electoral votes by winning the swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.” Trump took all those states, earning 312 electoral votes.
