All Predictions Wrong

All Predictions Wrong

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All Predictions Wrong
All Predictions Wrong
Energy Part One: The low-cost greenhouse improvement that’s hiding in plain sight

Energy Part One: The low-cost greenhouse improvement that’s hiding in plain sight

A simple way to achieve faster results than Biden’s elaborate, expensive regulatory mandates

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Gregg Easterbrook
Aug 09, 2024
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All Predictions Wrong
All Predictions Wrong
Energy Part One: The low-cost greenhouse improvement that’s hiding in plain sight
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Note to readers: As football approaches, All Predictions Wrong will turn more toward Tuesday Morning Quarterback, less toward essays. They will still appear, just not as often during football season.

In June yours truly promised, “There’s a practical way the United States could make large cuts in vehicle-based greenhouse emissions without spending trillions of dollars building electric vehicle infrastructure. A coming All Predictions Wrong will detail the solution that’s hiding in plain sight.”

Here goes!

Not kidding about the trillions. This study estimates new infrastructure required by EVs will cost $2 trillion to $4 trillion. That’s money that cannot be spent on health care, education, housing, or paying down the debt.

Throwing trillions in borrowed money to transform one of the largest sectors of the American economy will have -- best-case -- negligible impact on climate change.

When the White House announced, in June, the final set (for now, anyway) of EV-mandates, it said switching from internal combustion to electricity in most cars and light trucks would cut greenhouse gases by 710 million metric tons by 2050.

Sounds amazing and incredible! Except: works out to 0.0007 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions expected through the period.

A larger reduction in greenhouse gases could be achieved quickly – in a couple years, not by 2050 – with almost no infrastructure cost.

So what’s hiding in plain sight? Reduce the horsepower of new cars, SUVs and pickups.

The high horsepower Deuce Coupe that was the star of the movie American Graffiti. Image courtesy Rat Rod Studios.

Last year the average horsepower of new cars and light trucks (SUVs and pickups) sold in the United States hit an all-time high.

The zoomy Corvette Stingray of 50 years ago had 195 horsepower. Today the Toyota Camry, America’s bestselling family car, offers 301 horsepower.

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