Short-term problems are obscuring long-term progress…
…while climate promises get scaled back
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https://greggeasterbrook.substack.com/aed498c3
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Roy Amara, 1925-2007
Rapid national conversion to electric vehicles, scaled nuclear fusion, room temperature superconductivity – there’s been a lot of overestimation of the short-run effect of technology.
On the flip side there are good omens for the long run. Low-emission energy forms gradually replace fossil power, improved batteries solve the range problem for EVs, advanced nuclear finally works, perhaps space-gathered solar becomes a never-ending clean energy source.
Solar now provides 7 percent of American electricity. Sound like not much? Twenty years ago the figure was 0.1 percent. Improved use of solar is not as rapid as some expected short-term – but long-term, solar is happening.
In April 2025 the Iberian grid collapsed, leaving 60 million people in Spain and Portugal without power for most of a day. One reason was too much reliance on intermittent solar and wind, not enough steady baseline power. Combined with rising electricity prices, and the sense that European economies are stagnant, the 2025 grid collapse spooked the continent’s leaders about net-zero promises.
These in mind, All Predictions Wrong looks at encouraging current trends on several fronts then reviews how nations and corporations are changing their promises regarding climate change.
