The Peak of Everything

Population, oil use, greenhouse gases – major social indicators are nearing peaks

We can hope that with the election in the past, Peak Nonsense has been reached. Then again, every time you turn on the television..

Be that as it may, major peaks are in view – the population peak, the oil demand peak, the greenhouse gas peak, the demand-for-cars peak, the human fertility peak.

For at least 150 years, assumptions about economics and public policy have been driven by growth of practically everything – more babies, more resource use, more environmental harm, more vehicles and housing, more social stress, more and larger cities.

A fundamental shift may be approaching, one in which problems caused by resource consumption and population growth stop increasing and begin a long cycle of diminishing.

Fear of running out of resources may become quaint. Worries about the future may lessen, even as prosperity rises. Perhaps, the first taste of a post-scarcity economy future centuries may enjoy.

Photo by David Santoyo on Unsplash

Pike’s Peak.

The best-known peak prediction is Peak Oil, foreseen in 1956 by the geologist M. King Hubbert, who said United States petroleum production would peak no later than 1970, followed by irrevocable decline.

When U.S. oil output reached 9.5 million barrels per day in 1970 then declined through the next decade, Hubbert was praised as a seer.

At the time studies and forecasts, from the Club of Rome and others, declared global oil shortages inevitable. Crippling oil shortages was what elites wanted to hear –imposing gasoline rationing while banning economic growth were left-wing causes. (Check the history of “steady state” economic theory.) By 2008, U.S. oil production was down to 5 million barrels per day. The United States was dependent on Persian Gulf dictatorships.

Hubbert did not take into account innovation. Hydraulic fracturing, horizontal drilling and 3D seismology led to discoveries of vast oil basins in the United States and other nations. By 2023, U.S. oil production reached 13 billion barrels per day – more than Hubbert claimed was the physical limit.