TMQ: Generic Super Bowl final score prediction
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In the regular season New England was second for points scored, Seattle was third. Seattle was first in points allowed (that is, fewest) and New England was fourth.
Defense usually trumps offense in the Super Bowl. The highest-scoring NFL club ever, the 2013 Broncos, was held to 8 points in the Super Bowl by that season’s best defense, fielded by Seattle. The second-highest-scoring ever, the 2007 Patriots, was held to 14 points in the Super Bowl by the never-blitzing power defense of the Giants. And last year Kansas City’s high-scoring offense was beaten by the never-blitzing Eagles power defense.
Seattle being first against points is a major stat. But the Super Bowl pairs teams that have such great numbers on both sides of the ball there’s no clear edge.
Both head coaches, Mike Macdonald and Mike Vrabel, got their big breaks as defensive coordinators, making that factor seem equal.
On the downside for Seattle faithful, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak took time out of Super Bowl preparations to interview and negotiate for a head coach position. Historically coordinators who talk to future employers during Super Bowl preparation come to woe.
Example: the week before the Falcons-Patriots Super Bowl, Atlanta offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan was negotiating his contract for the Niners’ head coach position.
That was the Super Bowl in which the Falcons took a seemingly insurmountable 28-3 lead late in the third quarter. Then Shanahan called a terrible game down the stretch -- radioing in passing plays that resulted in interceptions and stopping the clock, rather than runs to drain time. New England staged a comeback victory.
Though the distracted Shanahan was mainly to blame, TMQ points a finger at head coach Dan Quinn, who failed to order his offensive coordinator to keep the ball on the ground.
If ESPN’s notorious “sources” can be believed, while preparing for the Super Bowl, Kubiak of the Seahawks agreed to the Las Vegas job. If so he will be a weasel coach from the get-go, about which Tuesday Morning Quarterback will have more to say.
The only air between the Super Bowl teams statistically is that Seattle played a harder schedule than New England, so its numbers may mean more.
In what this space calls Authentic Games – against opponents who made the playoffs the same season – Seattle is 5-2, New England is 3-2. That metric predicts the Blue Men Group will win the Super Bowl.
As always Tuesday Morning Quarterback foresees a Super Bowl final score of 20-17 – the most common NFL final score.
