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Never take points off the board.
In football coaching, this is a maxim along the lines of, in international politics, Never get involved in a land war in Asia.
Which the United States has done three times in the last century! Just like football coaches sometimes take points off the board.
Last month, Cowboys trailing Texans by 10 points in the third quarter, ‘Boys placekicker Brandon Aubrey hit a spectacular 64-yard field goal to make the margin one score.
There was a penalty against Houston. Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy took the points off the board in exchange for a first down. The Cowboys ended up not scoring on the possession.
The whole Dallas season has gone that way. But there’s a larger message. You knew there would be!
Analytics has gotten out of hand in football, and analytics does not like field goals. You must go for it to be a mensch in analytics.
Twenty years ago, NFL coaches didn’t go for it enough. Now they may go for it too much, at least in situations where a field goal attempt beckons.
The Lions learned the hard way during last season’s NFC title game. Twice in the second half, head coach Dan Campbell passed on medium-distance field goal attempts in order to try for a first down. Both tries failed; the Lions ended up losing by three.
Of course had Detroit taken the field goals, maybe the Lions still lose. Or maybe a field goal stops the Forty Niners second-half comeback then in progress. TMQ’s Law of Comebacks holds: Defense starts comebacks, offense stops them.
Opening drive of Texas at Texas A&M on Saturday, the Aggies had fourth-and-1 on the Longhorns 10. Take the points! An early lead might be just what the doctor ordered for the underdogs. Instead run no gain, Texas A&M went on to lose a close contest.
On the flip side, last month defending champion Kansas City was getting more than expected from the Carolina Panthers. The Chiefs reached fourth-and-4 on the Cats 7. Analytics said: Go for it. Andy Reid sent out the placekicker. Ultimately Kansas City won by three points.
Field goals are not chopped liver!
Analytics disdain for field goals shows misunderstanding of the game.
Photo courtesy NBC Sports.
It’s hard to score in the NFL. Last month versus Baltimore, the Steelers took the points six times and won 18-16. Sunday, three field goals by Pittsburgh were the difference as the Steelers defeated Cincinnati 44-38.
About a third of NFL games are won by three or less. This week six games were decided by a field goal or less.
Unless you’re behind by more than one score in the second half, take the points. (An old TMQ law: Kick Early, Go for It Late.) Field goals are not chopped liver!
The situation is different when a field goal attempt is not practical and the choice is between punting or going on fourth-and-short. There, analytics should rule.
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