TMQ: Mocking the mock drafts

Millions will watch the NFL draft merely to hear football talked about

Note: there will be another bonus TMQ next Tuesday analyzing the draft, then Tuesday Morning Quarterback returns to hiatus until the football artificial universe restarts in the fall.

All Predictions Wrong on Friday is ongoing.

Through its quirky years of existence, Tuesday Morning Quarterback has mainly been about the NFL. In addition, TMQ pays attention to prep football, because there are 500 high school players (most of them, legally, children) for each one NFL gent.

College football hasn’t gotten much notice in this space, other than for the crazed stats it generates. Such as: In one game at Texas Tech, Patrick Mahomes threw for 734 yards, and lost.

This year will be different. The economic upheaval in college football – there’s more upheaval inbound soon – will be a running TMQ topic. Tuesday Morning Quarterback will still mainly follow the pros: with college sports economics added.

A preview comes on Thursday night, when University of Miami quarterback Cam Ward goes at or near the top of the NFL draft.

Ward’s career arc is a leading indicator of the evolving college football structure, in which transfers are like catching a cab and money is paid openly to athletes.

For Ward that arc began at lower-tier Incarnate Word, which plays in a high- school-sized 6,000-seat stadium. Ward enrolled at Incarnate Word after no ranking from Rivals and no big-school offers out of high school.

Later he transferred to midmajor Washington State, where a couple Cougars games were on TV. That put Ward on scouts’ radars.

A year ago at this juncture, Cam Ward left Washington State and declared for the 2024 NFL draft.

His agent asked around and learned Ward was projecting as a “third day pick” – fourth round or lower. Ward was contacted by the Hurricanes booster collective. The University of Miami boosts one of the best-funded, most active booster organizations. At the Hurricane school, whale boosters have more clout than coaches.

Miami boosters offered Ward an NIL (Name, Image and Likeness) deal at a reported $2 million for the 2024 season. That’s more than a third-day rookie NFL contract pays. So Ward, who’d already played for two colleges, portaled to a third, to get the cash and hoping improve his draft stock.

Boy did the latter ever work! Ward went up and up the draft charts. Last year’s first quarterback chosen, Caleb Williams, received $39 million fully guaranteed. Ward is likely to be offered more. From third-day to top of the first round, plus significant income while a “college student.”

The money catches the eye, but so should the transfers. Nobody regulates whether a European history major can transfer from Kenyon to Oberlin. The NCAA for several generations maintained a pretense that athletes’ freedom to transfer would destroy sports.

Obviously it didn’t. The first two quarterbacks chosen the 2024 first round transferred at least once. If Ward, Shedeur Sanders, Tyler Shough and Jaxson Dart are first-round quarterbacks on Thursday, all transferred at least once.