TMQ: The Christmas lights theory of football

Plus Aaron Rodgers in winter

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Christmas lights are up, which means it’s December – money time in the NFL.

In December we find out who can run the ball in bad weather. We find out which dome-based or Florida-based teams don’t like to be outside in the cold. For winning clubs money time means the home stretch of postseason seeding. For the league’s sad sacks, money time means regress to phoning it in.

There’s a full month of regular season remaining and already Arizona, Atlanta, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Tennessee, Washington and the entire state of New Jersey are eliminated.

Money-time pairings of contenders are almost as good as playoff games. Next weekend brings Chargers at Chiefs, Bills at Patriots, Packers at Broncos, Colts at Seahawks and Lions at Rams.

That’s a fabulous slate. Programming note: these games will be blacked out in Hell’s Sports Bar. Contests in New England and Colorado have snow-angels potential. Wish for snow! And get that Christmas tree trimmed.

A few days ago Aaron Rodgers turned 42. He’s in decline. What athlete wouldn’t be after 40?

Rodgers maintains a solid Good Less Bad (touchdown passes minus interceptions) metric of 13. But he’s been missing open receivers, and accuracy was always the best part of his game. At times there is an expression of torment on his face: he can no longer perform at an elite level.

Stretching back to kickoff of last season, he’s 12-17 as a starter. Since winning the Super Bowl, he’s 7-9 in the playoffs. He had a fine game at Baltimore, even running for a touchdown on the scramble drill. But Rodgers knows Father Time lingers nearby.

Only person ever to win four NFL MVP awards, Rodgers may soon hang up his cleats to await the moment of first-ballot Hall of Fame.

CORRECTION: Multiple readers including Bonnie Trent of Denver noted Peyton Manning won five MVP awards.

While the statement “only person to win four” is literally true, it is deceptive. The statement that is literally true but deceptive is an ongoing problem in American society. Sorry!

So consider: when Rodgers came out of high school, no one wanted him. He spent a year playing at Butte Community College before Cal offered him a scholarship.

Of course there are examples of young prodigies who didn’t go on to succeed, and examples of high-school nobodies who do great things.

But with football quarterback the most-watched and most-studied position in our sports-crazed society, it’s remarkable how often promising quarterbacks struggle to be noticed. Perhaps this suggests promising people struggle to be noticed in many walks of life.

Photo by Peter Chapin on Unsplash

The lively new book American Kings by ESPN’s Seth Wickersham – the kings are quarterbacks – has a section on the Elite 11, a quarterback showcase event run by a sports company.

Each summer Elite 11 invites rising-senior high school quarterbacks to show off for college scouts. Originally 11 were invited, now it’s around 20 annually – some kind of inflation. The young Aaron Rodgers tried to get into Elite 11 and was turned away.

In 2016, NFL Network began broadcasting Elite 11 workout sessions. Armchair general managers tune in to watch high school guys in shorts do the three-cone drill and throw the ball through a target.

Photo courtesy Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Elite 11 has prominent alums including Matthew Stafford, Jayden Daniels and Tua Tagovailoa. American Kings notes Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson join Aaron Rodgers in not being invited. I’d add – Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts could not get into Elite 11 either.

Like Rodgers, neither Mahomes nor Allen received a recruiting offer from a powerhouse program.