TMQ Week Concludes on 12th Day with Draft Predictions

Don’t lend me a tenor, lend me a tight end!

Having predicted Anthony Richardson will be the man in the first round of the NFL draft – and feeling pretty good about the plausible deniability considering the name of this space – I’ll now make a second prediction. Tight end will be the go-to position of the 2023 draft.

A fast, tall tight end is the key that unlocks a modern NFL defense: too big for defensive backs to handle, too fast for linebackers.

Don’t lend me a tenor. Lend me a tight end!

Kansas City won the latest championship, and what did Kansas City do on offense? Played two tight ends – “12 personnel” is the current argot – more than anyone.

In the Super Bowl the Chiefs had two tight ends, Travis Kelce plus backup Noah Gray, on the field for 62 percent of their offensive snaps. The Eagles had their second tight end on the field for about a third of snaps, and never threw to him.

Through the season, Kansas City had 186 “targets” – passes thrown – to its top tight ends, versus 83 targets to leading tight ends for Philadelphia. And Kansas City won the trophy.

During the hustle and bustle of the season, scouts might not have noticed the league’s best team was favoring not just Travis Kelce but the tight end position overall. Now that the dust has settled (bustle… dust… no that’s not a mixed metaphor) and film has been stared at over way too many Red Bulls, surely NFL coaches have spotted the trend.

And it wasn’t just Kansas City, though that may be sufficient, it was many winning teams. The tall, fast tight end is the key that unlocks a modern NFL defense.

One reason few tight ends go high in the draft is that no position differs more from college ranks to pros. College tight ends run only two or three routes – a dig, a curl and a drag – while NFL tight ends are expected to execute the entire passing tree. College tight ends rarely are asked to “sight adjust” based on how the defense lines up. NFL tight ends must do so constantly.

This means many NFL teams shun “first day” and “second day” (rounds one through three) tight ends, hoping to grab one late and assuming years of coaching-up will be required.

This year’s draft is thought to be unusually deep at the tight end position. And there’s the example of the most recent champion using two tight ends against NFL defenses that have been optimized to guard multiple wide receiver sets.

Don’t lend me a tenor lend me a tight end!

Why Football Coaches Are Like Chefs. All chefs work with roughly the same ingredients and about the same equipment; results differ dramatically. As big and fast guys are chosen, remember, all NFL coaches have big and fast guys in helmets. Results differ dramatically.

Drafnik Terms to Listen For. The position that used to be “defensive end” has for some reason become EDGE, always spelled in capital letters. Technical note: for cover the draft for ESPN or NFL Network, you must be able to speak in capitalization.

A few years ago “catch the ball at its highest point” was the leading cliché regarding wide receivers. The ball’s highest point is way above the tallest person’s head! This cliché means “jump really high.”

This year “catch radii,” which has a pleasing SAT sound, will be the leading cliché about receivers.

Because the Seattle Seahawks’ great defense of the Blue Men Group’s 2013 Super Bowl win featured two big safeties who were a cross between strong safety and weakside linebacker, now many teams seek a safety/linebacker hybrid. They call the fronts that use such athletes a Big Nickle or a Buffalo Nickle, the latter referring not to the Bills but to the famous nickel with an American bison on the reverse.

Wolf Robe, said by some to be the model of the obverse of the Buffalo Nickel. Library of Congress photo.

Linebackers, in turn, are no longer Mike (middle linebacker), Will (weakside) or Sam (strongside). Now they are either a Mike – if Tom Brady actually is retired we will no longer hear him shout “53’s the Mike!” presnap – or an “off ball linebacker.”

I’ve watched tape of contemporary off-ball linebackers and they sure look like Wills and Sams to me. For some reason they are now “off ball.” Agents must think this leads to bigger signing bonuses.

Football Gods Please Keep Tom Brady at His Niece Maya’s UCLA Games So He Can’t Come Back Again.  As a Buffalo homer – All Predictions Wrong soon will begin to obsess about my hometown’s politics and sentimentality, plus why you should be snapping up real estate there because global warming will make Buffalo a paradise – I can state without fear of contradiction that if I never to see Brady under center again it will be too soon.

That said, Tom Brady is a greatest football player ever, greater than Jerry Rice, Reggie White, Bruce Smith, John Hannah, Red Grange or any other.

Brady holds many records unlikely to be broken, unless the NFL expands to a 52-week schedule. Please don’t suggest this at league headquarters, known to cognoscenti as “345 Park.”

The achievement that blows me away is Brady’s playoff won-lost record of 35-13. That’s three entire extra seasons of postseason! He didn’t merely play 23 NFL seasons. He played 26 seasons!

Brady’s tally comes to 48 total playoff games. Joe Montana was in 23 playoff games. Cornelius Bennett taped his ankles for the playoffs 20 times. Dan Marino appeared in 18 postseason contests. Charles Haley ran out for the introductions for 17 postseason tilts. Brady appeared in 48 postseason games. FORTY EIGHT!

Gawk here and click the “playoffs” tab at each category. Tom Brady has more postseason throws and yardage than most longtime starting quarterbacks compiled in the regular season.

“Boss, Let’s Take John Ross, Not That Mahomes Guy” If any current player will best Brady’s marks it will be Patrick Mahomes, who has the combination of talent, dedication, injury resistance and being at a well-run team.

Here are players chosen ahead of Mahomes in the 2017 draft:

Myles Garrett

Mitch Trubisky

Solomon Thomas

Leonard Fournette

Corey David

Jamaal Adams

Mike Williams

Christian McCaffrey

John Ross

The Tim Couch Factor. Quarterback Will Levis will be chosen in the first round, perhaps high. A complication is that he played college ball at Kentucky.

The last time a Kentucky Wildcat quarterback went in the first round was 1999, when Tim Couch was selected first overall. That didn’t go too well. Couch was OOF – Out Of Football – in just four years.

That somebody else from your school who played your position belly-flopped in the pros doesn’t logically have anything to do with you. But there’s a lot of guesswork in drafting, and some general managers are superstitious.

In the runup to the 2018 draft, some were superstitious about Penn State tailback  Saquon Barkley, because several high-first-round Nittany Lions at the tailback position flamed out – Ki-Jana Carter, Curtis Enis, Blair Thomas. Barkley ended up chosen second overall, and when he struggled early, some blamed the “Penn State running back curse.” Something akin to this may impact Levis’s odds.

“Boss, Let’s Take Tim Couch, Not That Champ Bailey Guy.” In the 1999 draft, shortly after Cleveland threw the first pick out the window by choosing Couch, two future Hall of Famers, Edgerrin James and Champ Bailey, were selected.

They Are Rending Garments and Gnashing Teeth in Philly. The Eagles had a fine season and came oh-so-close. In every tight game there’s a decision the losers wish they had back. In the Super Bowl it was this:

Trailing 28-27 early in the fourth quarter, Philadelphia faced fourth-and-3 and punted. Kansas City ran the punt back 65 yards and soon led 35-27.

Sure, the kick was from the Philadelphia 32. But Kansas City had scored touchdowns on its previous two possessions. The Chiefs’ offense was hot, as usually it is in the second half. Philadelphia had one of the league’s best short-yardage offenses. A first down would have put the Eagles in command. Had a first down try failed, well, head coach Nick Sirianni did the “safe” thing and Kansas City got another touchdown quickly anyway.

Kansas City is known for controlling the endgame. Philadelphia had possession of the ball, which overall is far more important than field position  -- especially when trailing in the fourth quarter, as Philadelphia was. Super Bowl trophies don’t come in the mail. Go win the game!

Beware the Stacked Team. Touts expect Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter to go high. He certainly “looks the part,” as scouts say. Yet his college stats are modest, even considering he is a nose tackle, whose primary responsibility is to disrupt blockers.

During Carter’s tenure in Athens, Georgia had a stacked team, especially, a stacked front seven. Playing on a stacked team, next to other blue-chip performers, may make an athlete seem better than he will seem later.

Team Needs: QB, RB, WR, TE, C, OT, OG, EDGE, DT, MLB, OLB, CB, S, P, K, LS. The vast proliferation of pre-draft commentary – hmmm, which Substack contributes to here – invariably includes lists of team needs.

Between injuries and the longer season, in the NFL everybody needs everything every draft.

This is just the nature of professional football, and argues for taking the best available player, rather than targeting specific positions. Of course it’s hard to be sure who the best-available is.

Even John Dutton Will Be Watching the Draft. Last year 10 million viewers tuned into the first round of the draft. At 13 million, the season finale of Yellowstone was the most-watched network evening. Some 113 million watched the Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl, which Fox said brought in about $600 million in ad revenue, all of which just went to Dominion Voting Systems.

Photo by Steven Cordes on Unsplash

Dominion is now refuting election conspiracy claims points-by-point, including pulling no punches with Pillow Guy. Fox News just invested heavily in this project.

Beware the Mega-Trade. My alter ego Tuesday Morning Quarterback contends mega-trades mostly fail.

Recent NFL mega-trades – Deshaun Watson to Cleveland, Russell Wilson to Denver, Tyreek Hill to Miami and Davante Adams to Las Vegas -- have yet to produce even one playoff victory for the acquiring teams.

Recent NBA mega trades fared little better. Minnesota and Atlanta swapped a total of seven first-round draft choices and five pretty-good players for Rudy Gobert and Dejounte Murray. Minnesota and Atlanta both had fewer wins the following season.

This suggests the Jets mega-trade for Aaron Rodgers won’t leave Jersey fans happy.

As everyone’s noted, it is the second time Jersey/B has traded for a 39-year-old old future Hall of Fame Green Bay quarterback. So, since Jordan Love is 24 years old, in 2038 this will happen again.

Frequent Flyer Pick of the Draft. Choice #29, Saints from Niners through Dolphins and Broncos. And the night is young, this pick cold be traded again!

Reform to Think About As We Wait for Football Artificial Universe to Resume. Your writer thinks the NFL should implement a seeded-tournament playoff format. But many purists are partial to the conference structure.

So how ‘bout this: whoever wins the first seed in each conference gets to choose  the team (from among other playoff qualifiers) they want to face in their postseason opener.

We Now Return to Our Regularly Scheduled Programming. That’s enough of Tuesday Morning Quarterback for the moment.

It’s back to the other concerns of All Predictions Wrong. The TMQ format will return with more frequency when the football artificial universe resumes in the fall.

Over the next two weeks I will post only occasionally as will be on a long-planned family trip.