Tuesday Morning Quarterback: Even more money is moving into football

The incentive structure of the sport is changing fast

The revenge of the cupcakes! Northern Illinois beat 28-point favorite Notre Dame on the latter’s own field and, according to the South Bend Tribune, took home a $1.4 paycheck from Irish boosters.

The boosters forgot to put in the contract that Northern Illinois must lose!

The paper further reports mid-major Miami University of Ohio will travel to Notre Dame for a $1.25 million payday later in the season. Boosters, amend that contract so the RedHawks acknowledge they’re supposed to roll over.

Fundamentally sports is entertainment. Wealthy alums find it entertaining to watch their favorites run up the score at home against cupcake opponents. Okay, so long as the cupcakes share the wealth.

Cupcake University takes the field, by Kurt Snibbe. Go Cakes!

Nearby is Kurt Snibbe’s wonderful cartoon imagining a Cupcake University which does nothing but travel around losing on the road to heavy favorites, in return for big checks.

Kurt drew this for the original ESPN version of TMQ. That was back when Disney supported quality writing. Boy would that ever change!

In sports economics, the surge of NIL money into the NCAA is sweetening the lives of many collegiate athletes. Perhaps soon Northern Illinois players will be endorsing Taco Bell or Coca-Cola Oreos. (Note: actual cookie.)

The sports marketing firm Opendorse estimates $1.7 billion in endorsement fees will transfer to college or even high school athletes by the end of 2024, either directly or through booster “collectives.” Most of the cash is going to football players.

More money may be added depending on the outcome of litigation involving the Power 5 (now Power Four) and the NCAA. A California judge just blocked a proposed $2.8 settlement that would end the parties’ liability exposure while creating a new system of revenue sharing among football and men’s basketball programs. The NCAA and Power Four are willing to put up that king’s ransom to stop the flood of antitrust lawsuits.

It’s hard to overstate how much college sports culture has changed in a short time, and football is the focus.

Fifteen years ago the NCAA essentially banned LSU football player Akiem Hicks for being such a bad, bad person that – a warning, some readers may find the next words disturbing – he let an LSU student buy him dinner.

NCAA rules at the time said that any food item other than “fruits, nuts and bagels” had to be approved by a compliance officer. The NCAA spent hundreds of person-hours trying to destroy Hicks’s life, and nearly succeeded. Ultimately he played college football at the University of Regina in Canada, where the NCAA has no sway, was drafted by the Saints and enjoyed a pretty good NFL career.

The NCAA threw the book at Hicks for eating a fish fry. The horror! Today a booster could give him an attaché case stuffed with Swiss bearer bonds and not only would that be cool, the booster collective could issue a press release about it.

Here’s what is coming next. Having quickly revolutionized the lives of college athletes, NIL money is about to do the same for high school athletes, especially in football and boys’ basketball.

Not so much by payments directly, although that may occur – by causing college sports to be a way to make money. Legally! Without even having the throw a game!

Today perhaps one high school football player in 50 gets a boost to college – either an athletic scholarship or an “ath admit” letter to a college they would not otherwise qualify for. (The Ivy League, NESCAC, Davidson, Carnegie Mellon and a few other great colleges are active in the “ath admit” category.) Once at college, the odds of a Power 4 football player ever receiving a paycheck from the NFL are one in 35. So you play your brains out in high school and almost certainly get no money in return.

The advent of NIL and collectives changes all that.

Opendorse estimates that an S.E.C. starting quarterback will receive about $1 million per year, a Big 10 starting offensive lineman about $300,000 annually. And soon, depending on the legal settlement, colleges may be able to pay players directly. The schools want to command the new money, rather than have it held by private organizations. Joe Drape and Allison McCann break it all down.

The Power Four has 68 member schools with about 1,500 football starters, each with a reasonable shot at $500,000 to $2 million through their college years. That’s a huge reward for playing football well in high school and college, even if you never spend a day in the pros. The incentive structure of high school (and youth) athletics is becoming dramatically more favorable.

Endorsement income, now suddenly kosher, is straightforward – companies pay for advertising. Celebrity college gymnast Olivia Dunne, 21 years of age, is estimated to have earned $3 million in endorsement fees so far, all proper and above-board. Do you wear Vuori? You would if you followed Dunne’s Instagram.

Basketball star Armando Bacot, knowing he was a long shot for the NBA, stayed at the University of North Carolina an extra year, to sign endorsement deals with Kellogg’s and others. Bacot graduated with an estimated $2 million in NIL earnings – and a master’s in business administration, which he obviously learned well!

Livvy Dunne. She will influence you. Photo courtesy Sports Illustrated.

Donor “collectives” are now kosher too, though harder to pin down because there is generally no requirement they disclose. The American way of college has created a significant cohort of people with more money than they know what to do with. Boosters get involved in a college’s sports scene in order to enjoy athletics from the inside, and to feel important.

Right now boosters are giving like crazy to collectives. Miami of Florida quarterback Cam Ward withdrew from the 2024 NFL draft because he knew he’d be a third-day pick. With the Hurricanes this season, he is estimated, by On3 Sports, to have received about $1 million in booster payments. All proper and above-board -- not in hundred dollar bills handed over at midnight, like the old system.

Money will assimilate athletics. Resistance is futile!

One aspect of the collectives should change soon. Many are 501c3 entities – funds given to them are tax deductible. But 501c3 designations should apply only to educational or charitable giving. Donating to the outside linebacker at a Power Four school isn’t spending for education or charity.

Some collectives charge a commission of 15 to 20 percent. That is a business, not a philanthropy. IRS, please get on this case.

Merely slapping the name of a college on an account should not mean donations are deductible. Otherwise I’d say All Predictions Wrong is an affiliate of Cupcake University and you could deduct the subscription!

Over the weekend I heard a radio interview with an officer of Creative Planning, a financial management firm. He said his company has in the last year gone from a standing start of no products for teenagers, to a division focused on money-management and tax services for college students suddenly receiving large checks.

Once high school kids (and their parents) realize this is happening, prep sports will be a lot more attractive.

NIL cash is going to volleyball, soccer, diving and other sports, both men’s and women’s. But mostly, to football. All those predictions high schools would stop playing football? Fuggedaboutit.

Last week’s TMQ was about how football would get even bigger at the NFL level. This is Phase Two—football gets even bigger in college and high school.

Resistance is futile.

Actual photograph of a member of a booster collective. Image courtesy Paramount.

In zebra news, Cardinals at Bills, Kyler Murray scrambled. As a tackler approached, at the last instant the quarterback slid. The tackler threw himself aside to avoid hitting Murray, brushing him while flying past. No helmet contact.

Personal foul. The flag converted fourth-and-long into a first down. Arizona recorded a touchdown on the possession.

Patriots at Bengals in the day’s big upset, Joe Burrow scrambled. As a tackler approached, at the last instant the quarterback slid. The tackler threw himself aside to avoid hitting Burrow, brushing him while flying past. No helmet contact. No flag.

The action of these plays was identical. One was a no-call, the other a major penalty. When will the NFL get it together and have consistent officiating?

In Super Bowl news, here is Tuesday Morning Quarterback’s incredible Super Bowl prediction – Vikings versus Bills.

One of them would have to win!

Stats of the Week #1 Since the start of last season, Baltimore is 0-4 versus Kansas City and Pittsburgh, 14-2 versus all other teams. Stat noted by reader Caesar Montevecchio.

Stats of the Week #2 Tua Tagovailoa is on a 12-0 streak when the kickoff temperature is at least 80 degrees.

Stats of the Week #3 The Giants have been outscored 6-68 in their two most recent home openers.

Stats of the Week #4 Chicago won despite just 148 yards of offense.

Stats of the Week #5 In his last two games against the Packers, Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts has rushed for a total of 190 yards.

Stats of the Week #6 Since the start of last season, Jax has followed an 8-3 stretch with a 1-6 stretch.

Stats of the Week #7 Lamar Jackson is 1-5 versus Patrick Mahomes.

Stats of the Week #8 Hosting Dallas, in the first half Cleveland recorded one first down.

Stats of the Week #9 It’s only the second weekend of CFB and already an admission to Tuesday Morning Quarterback’s exclusive 600 Club. Visiting Oklahoma State, Arkansas gained 648 yards, and lost.

Stats of the Week #10 Since signing his $160 million deal, Daniel Jones of the Giants has thrown two touchdown passes to his teammates and three pick-sixes to the opposition. 

Sweet Play of the Week. Packers leading Eagles 6-0 in Brazil, the Nesharim (see below) lined up with two wide receivers wide left.

One was the “X” receiver, back in the day called the split end. The X receiver is on the line of scrimmage and must deal with press coverage. The other was the “Z,” formerly the flanker – behind the line, can’t be jammed and allowed to move presnap.

The Z went in speed motion to the right; a safety followed him. At the snap the X ran a deep arrow toward the right; a cornerback followed him. These two movements drew both defensive backs away from the left – which would turn out to be the playside.

Tailback Saquon Barkley came from the backfield to run a pylon route toward the near left corner of the end zone. Only a linebacker was available to cover him. Barkley should win a matchup with a linebacker. He did – touchdown, his first of three on the night.

Nesharim note: The Eagles have the sole NFL logo that faces right to left; all others face left to right or are symmetrical. Nesharim means Eagles in Hebrew, which faces right to left. TMQ readers have already held a Talmudic debate about this translation, the matter is settled.

The Giants’ Seaside Heights roller derby look.

Sour Play of the Week. The sour play was the Giants coming out of the locker room dressed as a roller derby team from the Jersey boardwalk. Did they think if they played in disguise the fans wouldn’t realize how bad they are?

Vikings leading 7-3 late in the second quarter, Minnesota goes for it on fourth down at the Jersey/A 3, touchdown. Maybe some guys on roller skates could have stopped the play.

Two seasons ago Brian Daboll was Coach of the Year. Will he be fired by United Nations Day?

Sweet ‘N’ Sour Play of the Week. The Jaguars surrendered passing plays of 63 and 80 yards to the Marine Mammals. Jacksonville lost yardage on a fourth-and-inches. But the sweet ‘n’ sour sequence that decided the game was this:

Jax leading 17-7, tailback Travis Etienne was running in the clear for a likely touchdown when he fumbled at the Miami 3. The ball rolled into the end zone for a touchback; first Dolphins play was 80 yards to Tyreek Hill. The 80 yards required 11 seconds on the game clock – which puts Hill in pads are nearly at Olympic sprinter speed.

Noah Lyles and Tyreek Hill really should race! Photo courtesy NBC.

The Football Gods Chortled. Seattle won despite committing two safeties – and in the same quarter.

Baltimore at Kansas City. The Ravens ended last season by losing to the Chiefs, began this season by losing to the Chiefs. Ouch.

The Baltimore achieved an anomaly by losing despite a big rushing edge on the road – 185 yards to 72 yards for Kansas City. Normally a visitor that outrushes the home team wins.

After abandoning the run in last season’s AFC title contest loss to Kansas City, this time Baltimore played a lot of the contest with two tight ends and a fullback on the field. The Ravens ran as almost many times in the first half (18) as Kansas City did in the whole game (20).

Once the Ravens were down by two scores in the second half, they got out of their game plan and started passing. This came within a receiver’s toe of working.

Had the as-time-expired touchdown counted, making the score 27-26 Kansas City, Baltimore would have gone for two and the win. John Harbaugh flashed the “go for it” signal. What a shame we didn’t get the entertainment value of a game-concluding all-or-nothing down.

Stop Me Before I Blitz Again -- Wait, I Stopped! Kansas City is known for the big blitz, especially on third-and-long. Every offensive game plan versus the Chiefs accounts for expected big blitzes.

In the Ravens at Chiefs opener, Baltimore faced third-and-11 on its first possession: big blitz, the line knew it was coming, conversion for a first down. That was standard Kansas City defensive tactics.

Then when the Ravens ran several plays inside the Kansas City red zone at the end of the first half, and did the same inside the Kansas City red zone again at the end of the game, the Chiefs did not blitz. On all but one of these downs, Kansas City rushed only three, dropping everyone else into coverage. This tactic came by surprise, and gave up only three points to two red zone possessions – though, succeeded only by a toe!

Photo by Jamie Davies on Unsplash

Christmas Creep: the Sequel. Once TMQ had a running item about Christmas Creep. Readers would report radio stations that switched to Christmas music before Halloween, that sort of thing.

Then Christmas Creep got so out of control – tinsel and holly in Costco in September – that it became shooting fish in a barrel. So the item was retired.

But I cannot overlook Nicolas Maduro saying Venezuela will celebrate Christmas on October 1.

He’s trying to divert attention from stealing the election, in which average people voted overwhelmingly to end his dictatorship. Even the Guardian calls him an authoritarian! Maduro runs a nation with plenty of oil reserves yet bare shelves in stores, because of a mix of failed oppressive policies and corruption.

But Merry Christmas on October 1! Of course in Venezuela there won’t be any presents, since there is nothing to buy.

Buck-Buck-Bawkkkkkk #1. Trailing the Chargers 16-10 in the fourth quarter, Las Vegas punted on fourth-and-1 in opposition territory. It took LA/B six plays to pass the yard line where the ball would have been, had the Raiders gone for it and failed. Los Angeles scored on the possession, and the game was over.

Buck-Buck-Bawkkkkkk #2. Trailing City of Tampa 30-16 in the fourth quarter, the Washington Commies punted on fourth-and-8 from midfield. It took the Bucs two plays to pass the yard line where the ball would have been, had Washington gone for it and failed. Sure fourth-and-8 isn’t easy. But as the punt boomed, TMQ wrote the words “game over” in his notebook.

Fortune Favors the Bold! Trailing by 14 points in the third quarter at Detroit, LA/A faced fourth-and-3 at the host’s 29. The Buck-Buck-Bawkkkkkk reaction here is to launch a field goal. The Rams went for it, converted, got a touchdown on the possession, took the lead late; Detroit forced overtime and won.

Touchdowns don’t come in the mail, you must be bold!

Overtime note: The Lions won the coin flip, drove for six and the contest ended without the visitors ever having a chance. The NFL overtime format continues to be the pits – how about trying the NCAA format?

A touchback started the overtime, so under this year’s rule, the home team’s drive began on its 30. As new kickoff rules increase the likelihood of possessions starting on the 30, the chances become slightly higher the team that wins the coin flip will advance to a contest-ending touchdown. Another reason the NFL overtime format must change.

Who Looks This Stuff Up? The Eagles are the first team in NFL annals to have the same head coach for three years, but new offensive and defensive coordinators in each of the three years.

What Is the Origin of the Origin Story? The latest Batman product, the animated Batman: Caped Crusader on Amazon Prime, spends a lot of run time on the origin story. The next big-budget Superman film, Superman, due next summer, is said to spend a lot of run time on the origin story.

At this juncture, viewers of movies and television have seen Batman’s origin story a dozen times. Batman, Superman and the Flash TV and film productions do the origin story over and over because it doesn’t require any creativity – everybody already knows what’s going to happen.

We read the Christmas birth story and the Passover story every year even though we already know what happens – because stories such as this have deeper meaning, regardless of whether they are factually true.

They might be: as a Christian agnostic, your writer simply has no idea.

Batman’s origin story, the destruction of Krypton – these are just a comic book. Enough already!

And what were the wealthy Thomas and Martha Wayne doing taking their little boy into a dark alley in a crime-plagued neighborhood, huh?

Batman: Caped Crusader is pretty much a reboot of Batman: The Animated Series, which ran 1992-1995. Both come from the Warner Bros animation studio that produced the classic theatrical-release adult cartoons Iron Giant and Mask of the Phantasm. I’d submit Mask of the Phantasm is a better movie than any of the Batman live-action flicks, including the Chris Nolan trio.

Much of the creative team of Batman: The Animated Series is back in Batman: Caped Crusader, J.J. Abrams joining with a producer credit.

The brooding texture of the old show is restored – none of the silliness Hollywood often injects into Batman. “You’re no fun,” Catwoman tells the Bat in the new serial. “That’s right,” he answers. At one point in Batman: The Animated Series, Dick Grayson wants to watch a Christmas special. “As long as it’s not cheerful,” Bruce Wayne replies.

Your writer lived in Belgium when Batman: The Animated Series aired, watching on American Forces Network. It’s pleasant to have the same basic feeling of that series back. I remember thinking, “This is so much better than any Batman treatment with movie stars.” At the time the bitter taste of the cringeworthy Batman & Robin, with George Clooney and Arnold Schwarzenegger, was fresh.

Here’s a reflection on what ran on American Forces Network, a military broadcast service, in the time before streaming.

Batman: Caped Crusader appears to occur in the 1940s, though there are computers. Selena Kyle is still a childless cat lady. The villain Onomatopoeia gets an episode. Since he doesn’t have any special abilities (other than speaking in cartoon bubbles) why is he so hard for Batman to defeat?

The Penguin has had a sex change operation and become Oswalda. Maybe this is to position the character as distinct from the Colin Ferrell version upcoming in The Penguin on HBO. 

The childless cat lady in the new Batman serial, voiced by Christina Ricci. Image courtesy Warner Bros.

The next Superman movie does the ultimate in recycling by using the same title as the first Superman movie, Superman from 1978. Rachel Brosnahan, lately Mrs. Maisel, appears as Lois Lane. Somehow Maxwell Lord is back from Wonder Woman 1984, set forty years ago.

The latter flick, WW84, was dreadfully bad. In it we are told the gods created Wonder Woman to protect humanity from war. But what’s Diana doing? Chasing purse snatchers at a shopping mall. Immortal, she was AWOL during World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War…

For your bingo card -- in the new film Superman film, how many minutes till Clark Kent loses his powers?

Rumor says a lot of Superman will concern Clark’s origin story in Smallville. There have already been two TV series dedicated to that, Smallville (217 episodes) and Superman & Lois (43 episodes, fourth season coming soon). What can there be about Smallville, Kansas, which hasn’t been covered in 260 total episodes so far?

Perhaps the new big-budget film will explain how Superman & Lois depicted the annual Smallville versus Metropolis high school football game. The isolated farm town of Smallville should be playing Kansas six-man football. How could the high school of a tiny rural berg have enough boys to face a powerhouse from Metropolis?

Rachel Brosnahan as Mrs. Maisel. Image courtesy Amazon Studios.

Capitalism Will Sell the Advertising Used to Hang It. During the Peacock-only NFL telecast from Brazil, the booth crew read a paid product placement for Google’s NFL Sunday Ticket. That is – urged viewers to buy a competitor to Peacock.

“Where’s That Scouting Report on Charleston?” Detroit Lions lineman John Cominsky may miss the season with a knee injury.

TMQ likes this gent because he played college football at D2 University of Charleston, West Virginia. TMQ likes the University of Charleston because there is also an unrelated College of Charleston in South Carolina. Sadly there cannot be a Charleston versus Charleston football game because the College of Charleston does not participate in the gridiron sport.

And Wilson Doesn’t Even Have to Moonlight as a Walmart Greeter. This season the Broncos will pay Russell Wilson $38 million to play for the Steelers (Pittsburgh chips in only the veteran minimum.) Wilson’s bad contract imposes a $53 million salary cap penalty on Denver in 2024, and another $32 million penalty next season.

Remember, the Denver Broncos are now run by Walmart heirs. The nutty moves involving Wilson are the thought processes of world’s largest corporation by sales.

To sum the Broncos traded four top draft picks and three players for Wilson, paid him a total of $124 million, then let him go.

That’ll teach him!

Deion’s Dark Glasses. After going 3-0 in his first games as Colorado head coach, and receiving rapturous publicity, Sanders is 2-9 since.

Trailing Nebraska 0-28 in the third quarter, Sanders had his charges kick a field goal from the Cornhuskers’ 10, raising the white flag to ensure Colorado would not be shut out.

Nebraska’s quarterback is Dylan Raiola, who was top dog of the most recent recruiting cycle. Raiola’s family changed states twice to advance his chances – first he spent a year at a high school in Texas, then a year at a high school in Arizona, then a year at a high school in Georgia. When the portal next opens, don’t be surprised if he takes a booster-bucks package to leave Nebraska.

Understudy Paid More Than Leading Man. Quinn Ewers, the quarterback starter at Texas, is estimated to be making $2 million in NIL money this season. Arch Manning, the backup quarterback, is estimated to be making $3 million.

Adventures in Officiating #1. TMQ complains – including in last week’s edition – that today’s zebras allow the offensive tackles to line up far off the line of scrimmage, almost in the backfield. (Being “rocked back” is an advantage in pass blocking.) In the Ravens at Chiefs opener, Baltimore was flagged for illegal formation – offensive linemen in the backfield – four times. Guess that will get the word out.

The Ravens offensive line had a bad night overall, allowing a jailbreak rush that caused Lamar Jackson to fumble. When the Nevermores went for it on fourth-and-3 at midfield, the left tackle and left guard, who pulled to lead a play wide right, never made contact with anyone.

Surely a factor was that Ravens offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris died unexpectedly (complications of surgery) in mid August. The Ravens have an interim line coach.

Over on the Kansas City offensive line, center Creed Humphrey had a great game. Humphrey was last season’s Tuesday Morning Quarterback Non-Quarterback Non-Running Back NFL MVP – and he didn’t let it go to his head!

Joe D’Alessandris, 1954-2024. He spent his entire adult life in football coaching – at nine colleges, four NFL teams, two CFL teams and a World League of American Football club. All these job changes didn’t make D’Alessandris an outlier. They made him a football coach.

One year he coached linemen with the Memphis Mad Dogs, the answer to a football trivia question: “Name a Canadian Football League team based in the United States.” In 1995 the Memphis Mad Dogs, Birmingham Barracudas, Shreveport Pirates, Sacramento Gold Miners and Baltimore Stallions, all CFL members, folded. On the way out the door the Stallions won the Grey Cup!

Adventures in Officiating #2. In the Packers Eagles tilt, both teams had 12 men on the field on the same play.

Moment We’re Glad NBC Did Not Show. Just before his third quarter touchdown, Chiefs tailback Isiah Pacheco ran to the sideline to vomit. Football players vomit in-game more than perhaps we’d care to discuss. It is good manners to race to the sideline first.

UbtheGM. Last week’s poll was: why did the Patriots, with a weak roster, trade away Matthew Judon, their best player?

Choices were because they are tanking, because Judon insulted new head coach Jerod Mayo, or because the new Patriots front office is incompetent.

“They’re tanking” won at 47 percent of votes.

Harvard Plays Catch-Up to TMQ. Last week Harvard economist Roland Fryer had a Wall Street Journal oped about the declining market for NFL running backs. Fryer’s article is well-done. Though the case is stated in Tuesday Morning Quarterback from a year ago on the same topic.

Fryer further states that rushing the ball has declined in NFL importance compared to passing the ball. How true! Though the case is stated in my 2015 book The Game’s Not Over, which contains a chapter on the math of running versus passing under new rules, and details how the ground-and-pound Bill Belichick did a 180 to go pass-wacky for the Patriots’ 2007 season that ended a few seconds short of perfection.

Fryer is a gifted economist who has won the John Bates Clark Medal, which many consider more significant than the Nobel for economics.

The latest generation of Nobel economists is so farblunget (one of those Yiddish words that cannot be improved upon) that if all their mutually contradictory advice were taken, society would become chaos. Though shout out to Nobel economist James Hechman, like me a Tiger from Colorado College.

There’s a backstory with Fryer and Claudine Gay, who was briefly president of Harvard till her plagiarism was exposed. Gay remains a chaired professor in government studies there. So it’s okay to be a plagiarist on the Harvard faculty. But if you’re a student and plagiarize, you are burnt toast.

Roland Fryer Jr. Photo courtesy Harvard University.

Bear with me for a paragraph. The Ferguson, Missouri, unrest was the summer of 2014. Later the Justice Department, under Barack Obama, found the Ferguson police department was racist and institutionally corrupt. Also found – and the MSM quietly ignored this part – a Ferguson officer was justified in shooting Michael Brown. That was the conclusion under Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder.

Events in Ferguson seemed, at least, right out of the playbook of extremist politics. That’s where Fryer comes in. He had just completed a study of police behavior, mainly in Houston, concluding racism was not central to by-police shootings. Rather, police being at risk in high-crime neighborhoods was the root cause – cops were firing to protect themselves.

Here is the paper and here is a refutation.

As defund the police became a rally cry, it did not at all fit The Narrative that one of Harvard’s most accomplished black scholars published a study saying by-police killings were not racial: at least, not in Houston.

At that juncture Gay had become dean of Harvard arts and sciences, thus Fryer’s supervisor. She worked behind the scenes to destroy his reputation.

Fryer was put through a Star Chamber proceeding where he was accused of nefarious, conveniently vague actions. Harvard, where groupthink and fakery rule, wanted to get rid of a freethinker whose achievements are genuine. All that was ever proved was that Fryer told students off-color jokes, for which he apologized.

Today Fryer’s reputation is restored while Gay’s is – you finish that sentence.

One can argue with Fryer’s paper on police decision-making. My view is Fryer was over-analyzing. But his sin was not a contentious study or bad sense of humor. His sin was undercutting The Narrative.

Trick Play of the Year. It’s only September and already Thomas Downey High in Modesto has run the Trick Play of the Year.

From punt formation, the apparent punter heave-hoed an underhand pass, punter becoming the quarterback on this down. Underhanded passes are legal, they’re just not as effective as standard overhand delivery. (The shovel pass is an underhand pass.)

To the other team, what was fluttering downward appeared to be a punt. But it was a forward pass – anyone may catch it! Which a Thomas Downey player did, first and 10.

Had a guy from the receiving team caught the ball, that would have been an interception – with the same field position effect as a punt.

The Bad and the Good of Michael Lewis. Last week this space zinged Michael Lewis for the ethical questions (and exaggeration) of his hit book The Blind Side. In his defense I lauded him for his writing in praise of public service.

A few days later the Washington Post ran this longform piece by Lewis once again praising public service. Bravo Zulu, as is said in the Navy!

Charley Johnson. Photo courtesy New Mexico State University.

Charley Johnson, 1938-2024. The former star quarterback for New Mexico State and for three NFL clubs passed away last week.

He was a member of the small group of jocks whose leading achievements occurred after they taped their ankles for the final time. Jack Kemp and Alan Page come to mind – the latter, after being a Pro Bowl defensive lineman for the Vikings, graduated from law school and became a Minnesota state appellate judge.

After leaving the NFL, Johnson studied for his master’s in chemistry at Washington University in St. Louis, then taught chemical engineering at his alma mater. The football gods will greet him with song and feasting.

Next Week. Can the Bears win a game without scoring at all?

About All Predictions Wrong

In addition to TMQ on Tuesday through the NFL season, there will be an All Predictions Wrong, on an eclectic range of topics, on most Fridays, plus bonus editions depending on news events.

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