Tuesday Morning Quarterback is one month away!
Soon the football artificial universe returns, and so will the best place to read about it
Note to readers: this is a Tuesday Morning Quarterback sample, offered to announce that TMQ will return on September 5 -- sharing this space with non-football commentary.
Library of Congress photo.
“’Tis pity he’s a running back,” to twist on the Jacobean playwright John Ford. Take pity on NFL running backs. They are underpaid and under-appreciated. Just ask them!
Are NFL running backs having a hard time in the marketplace because of a vast conspiracy? Or it is the evolution of rules and playcalling that’s changing the game?
In a moment TMQ will ponder this. First – Sean Payton is very angry about mismanagement of the 2022 Denver Broncos, a team that he had nothing to do with.
Last year Broncos head coach Nathaniel Hackett did “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL,” Payton, who replaced Hackett, just said.
“There's 20 dirty hands, for what was allowed, tolerated in the fricking training rooms, the meeting rooms,” Payton continued, without specifying what, exactly, was tolerated in meeting rooms. Dirty hands! Things got so bad Hackett was guilty of “marching people around and all this stuff.”
Marching people around! The horror!
Hackett has become offensive coordinator of the Jersey/B Jets, which now have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, so presumably Hackett’s spirits are high.
Why the burst of negativity from Payton? He’s won a Super Bowl as a head coach. He just inked a $90 million deal with the Broncos that makes him among the highest paid sideline figures in sports, and the agreement is effectively guaranteed (a “talent contract” in labor-law terms). So why isn’t Payton magnanimous about previous Denver management?
Here's why: he is trying to set expectations low. The Broncos finished 5-12 last season, and with a king’s ransom of draft picks traded for Russell Wilson and the aforementioned Payton, are in the downslope of a talent cycle. Broncs fans may experience a rough year.
So if Denver posts another losing record, Payton already has his excuse set up: “The situation I inherited was so awful, what did you expect?”
On the other hand if Denver makes the playoffs, Payton can say, “I must be a genius who did a great job.”
Payton knows there is a reasonable chance the Broncos will in fact have a winning year. They play home games at 5,280 feet, which has always been like starting the season 1-0 in the standings. In 2022 the Broncos were in many close games, solid defense making up for awful offense: three losses in overtime, three other losses by a field goal or less.
If Wilson returns to form and the Broncs do well – two games in three weeks against Kansas City will tell the tale – Payton may break a bone patting himself on the pack.
Just before the Kansas City showdown begins, the Jets come to Denver, and Rodgers is aggrieved that Payton insulted his longtime friend. (Hackett was Rodgers’s offensive coordinator for three years in Green Bay.)
Suppose Payton’s self-serving insults lead to a motivated Jets team winning in Denver. That would be – nope, the season has not even started, I am not going to say Greek tragedy. TMQ hopes to get through the entire NFL schedule without the words “Greek tragedy.”
Back to the backs
Josh Jacobs, the NFL’s rushing leader in 2022, is out of training camp because the Raiders did not offer him a long-term deal. Jersey/A star tailback Saquon Barkley is pouting over his “franchise tag” that pays much less than what he perceives as his value. Power backs Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott are unemployed. Tailback Joe Mixon took a pay cut to avoid being waived by Cincinnati. All-purpose back Austin Ekeler has complained mightily that the Chargers (LA/B to TMQ) wouldn’t offer him higher numbers. Colts star tailback Jonathan Taylor wants a trade after not getting the contract numbers he expected.
It's come to the NFL’s top backs having touchy-feely grievance sessions on Zoom. Like high school kids on a conference call – “That Mister Irsay, he was so mean to me!”
“Show me the spreadsheet data!”
There’s an aspect of the Jerry Maguire Fallacy at play here. The Jerry Maguire Fallacy is that athletes (and sportswriters) think an agent screaming into a cell phone is what makes for big contracts. The market makes the contract – and the market for NFL running backs is soft.
For a quarter century the NFL has been altering its rules to favor passing over rushing. Rules revisions have led to tactics changes, especially more passes and fewer rushes, plus multiple-wideout formations with one or no running back where once there would have been two.
Let’s look at a few stats, then contemplate evolution in rules and tactics.
Stats NFL running backs won’t like
Last year the Super Bowl winner, Kansas City, attempted 38 passes per game, 25 rushes per game. That formula won the league.
Last year’s Super Bowl involved multiple high-drafted players at tight end and wide receiver (either as-draft by the Chiefs or Eagles or high choices used in trades to obtain the player). Starting running backs? Isiah Pacheco, a rookie 7th round choice for Kansas City, and Miles Sanders for Philadelphia, whom the Eagles let walk two months later in free agency because they didn’t value the position.
Deep dive into the Game Book for the Philadelphia versus Kansas City Super Bowl.
Kansas City’s starting running back played 26 snaps, or 47 percent of Chiefs’ offensive downs. Philadelphia’s starting running back also played 26 snaps, 35 percent of the Eagles’ offensive downs. By contrast the Eagles’ starting tight end played 95 percent of Philadelphia snaps, the Chiefs’ starting tight end played 78 percent of the time.
This is a point Tuesday Morning Quarterback will return to: Lend Me a Tight End! will be a running feature. It’s also a leading indicator of the running back market.
If running backs come off the field a lot, while other types of players stay on, running backs will decline in value. Broadly across the league, tailbacks come out on third down and other situations, while offensive linemen and the team’s best receivers rarely come out. So who’s more valuable?
Whether down-and-distance substitution improves results is another topic Tuesday Morning Quarterback will return to this season. But down-and-distance packages are now the norm in the NFL, and reduce the economic value of the guys who come out – which is mainly the running backs.
The Bears were the number-one rushing team in 2022. Chicago’s starting running back, David Montgomery, played 61 percent of offensive snaps, while Cole Kmet, the Bears’ starting tight end, played 94 percent of snaps. Injuries were not the reason: Montgomery started all but one game. The reason was the decline in value of running backs -- even to a run-first club.
Running backs: read these stats and weep
In recent seasons, the Baltimore Ravens have been best-overall at rushing the ball, and the result has been a 1-4 stretch in the playoffs – where you must be able to complete passes to win.
An inflection point was 2020, when Baltimore, Tennessee and Cleveland finished 1-2-3 in rushing, then all had trouble scoring in playoff losses. This focused offensive coaches’ attention on improving the passing game.
Kansas City just took the league after being 1st in passing, 19th in rushing. Six consecutive Super Bowls have been won by a team with no 1,000-yard rusher that season.
The last Super Bowl winner to lead the league in rushing that season was the 2007 Giants. A few years later the Giants won the Super Bowl again, after finishing last in rushing – a barometer of change.
From about 1950 to about 2000, the most common formation was the “pro set,” with two running backs and three receivers. Just before the snap announcers would say “backs in a divide,” meaning a running back on either side of the quarterback.
Today the pro set is seen about as often as a dodo bird. In the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl, both teams started four receivers and one running back. When demand for your skill goes down, so does price.
Artwork depicting an NFL running back.
Belichick goes pass-wacky
My book The Game’s Not Over (2015, PublicAffairs Books) includes a chapter detailing how the humorless-but-super-effective Bill Belichick converted from a defense-first coach to a passing-first coach.
Belichick grew up on defense, clock control and power rushing. His defensive game plan for the 1991 Super Bowl, in which the Giants held the Bills, that year’s highest-scoring team, to 19 points, is at Canton in the Hall of Fame.
Conversion from cloud-of-dust tactics to passing-first led to the 2007 season in which New England became the NFL’s highest-scoring team ever, using a pass-wacky offense that at one juncture threw on 16 consecutive snaps. A few years later Denver would best New England to become highest-scoring offense ever, also employing a pass-wacky approach.
Belichick had noticed how rules changes were altering the ecology of the sport. To quote The Game’s Not Over:
“In 1977, last season before rules changes began, 51.3 percent of NFL passing calls resulted in a completion, 8.9 percent resulted in sacks and 5.7 percent resulted in interceptions. Bad things happened on 14.6 percent of pass calls.”
“By 2014, the NFL completion percentage was 62.4, the sack rate was 6.3 percent and the interceptions share was 2.5 percent. Bad things were happening on only 8.8 percent of pass calls, while the desired result, a completion, had become significantly more likely. New rules reduced the risk of airing out the ball, while increasing the reward.”
Through the period stats for rushes stayed roughly the same. Thus passing became more appealing, while running did not.
Passing plays have almost always yielded a better average per attempt than rushes, but the risk of interceptions and sacks held coaches back. Once those risks declined, passing plays became more attractive than running ways.
Poof went the market for tailback. And fullback, too.
A generation ago fullbacks were ubiquitous. Today many NFL rosters don’t even have a fullback. William Floyd, chosen by San Francisco in 1994, was the last fullback selected in the first round of the draft. Contemporary NFL coaches think using one of their 11 offensive on-field slots on a fullback is unproductive, compared to using that same slot on a receiver or extra blocker. Rules and playcalling have changed too much.
The changes.
At the forefront of rules changes are ones to encourage the passing game, which, for better or worse, NFL owners and the influential Competition Committee judged more entertaining than the running game.
A generation ago, pass rushers could lift up the quarterback and body-slam him. Now that’s a flag. A generation ago rushers could hit the quarterback after he released the ball. Now that’s a flag. Now any contact below the quarterback’s waist is a flag, while any contact with the quarterback’s helmet or neck is flag. Now if a quarterback hook-slides you can’t make contact, whereas a generation ago, a quarterback who took off running was an invitation to a free shot.
Quarterbacks are the most valuable players in football, and the most valuable economic asset for teams. All of the NFL’s highest-paid players are quarterbacks. Owners don’t want their capital investments getting hurt, so changed the rules. The new security for quarterbacks encouraged passing, and passing is on average more effective than handing off.
Changes to blocking rules and to the officiating manual also encouraged passing. The manual – which the NFL is secretive about – details how zebras enforce the rules.
Changes allowed offensive tackles to set behind the line of scrimmage, an advantage in pass blocking. (Freeze the frame just before an NFL offense snaps the ball – the tackles may be lined up off the line, like wingbacks of a generation ago.) Offensive linemen became allowed to have their hands outside the “frame of the body” on passing downs, which favors pass blocking. Hand-punching – offensive linemen hitting the pass rusher’s chests with their hands – became okay. All these changes favored passing.
Downfield the chuck rule was imposed, and then about 20 years ago, made more strict. No contact with the receiver by the defender after the first five yards, on pain of a stiff penalty (automatic first down). Tuesday Morning Quarterback thinks the chuck rule should be called the Charles rule – more dignified.
Reducing concussions was absolutely essential; the new rules favored passing offense. No driving through the receiver after an incompletion. No hitting a “defenseless” receiver, one who cannot see the defender coming. No hitting the receiver helmet-to-helmet, even after a catch that turns the receiver into a runner.
Concussion-reducing changes made passing plays more valuable, particularly routes over the middle.
A generation ago only brave wide receivers went over the middle, because of the likelihood of being hit in the head. Watch tape of the 1992 Bills-R*d*s Super Bowl in which Washington repeatedly, deliberately hit Buffalo wide receivers in the head as they came across the middle. Zebras did nothing, because at the time this was tolerated by officials. Now it’s not -- improving the risk-reward ratio of passing.
Note: for Super Bowls and other postseason competition, this space uses the year in which the game was played, not the year of the season the game followed.
A generation ago the “shallow cross” was a risky pass pattern, risky to the health of wide receivers. Now the shallow cross happens on almost every passing down, and has become an easy throw to complete, because of anti-concussion rules.
Zebras do no favors for tailbacks
While rules and officiating-manual changes bent toward passing, they bent away from rushing.
The crackback block – receiver coming back toward the formation slams a defender from the side – was banished. Crackback blocks were essential to off-tackle runs.
Regulation of the chop block became strict. In a chop block, one offensive lineman hits a defender high while another hits low. Standard running schemes of a generation ago involved chop blocks at the point of attack, to ensure the ballcarrier got by the first defender. Now chop blocks don’t happen often.
The sociology of running the ball
Most NFL draft choices sign four- or five-year contracts. They have to, by league and players-association rules.
You’ll hear it said teams use up the bodies of running backs in those first four or five years, when the player is on a cost-controlled deal that fits easily under the salary cap. Then when the running back reaches free agency and might cash in with a nice deal, the team simply brings in a younger back, because younger backs are easy to find.
All this is true – but why are younger running backs easy to find?
The reason is that of pro football positions, running back is most similar to the college position.
Quarterback, tight end, wide receiver, offensive tackle, linebacker, cornerback – these positions are notably different in the NFL than in the NCAA.
Typical college wide receivers, for example, know only a few routes and don’t “sight adjust” – don’t change their own assignments based on what they see presnap. Pro wide receivers must know the entire passing tree, and make split-second decisions about their routes. That’s why many wide receivers do not come into their own till the third or fourth year – Deebo Samuel of Santa Clara is an example.
There’s a similar learning curve at all other NFL positions except running back.
Arriving in the pros, running backs must learn to blitz block, which many never do in college. Otherwise rushing and catching swing passes are little different from what a tailback has been doing since middle school.
The result is that bringing in a rookie running back and giving him responsibility is easier done than bringing in a rookie tight end, mike linebacker or other type of player who needs to grow into the pro position.
When most types of NFL players have played out their four- or five-year rookie deals to reach free agency, they are just hitting their athletic peaks, and very valuable. When running backs have played out their rookie deals, they are not only beat up from contact, the odds are excellent of getting a just-as-good younger and cheaper gent.
In this sense, the running back profession is a victim of its own success.
Ezekiel Elliott is a productive player who’d reached seven years when the Cowboys dropped him in March, replacing him with Tony Pollard, an effective player who’s reached four seasons. Perhaps Pollard soon will be replaced with a younger, cheaper tailback who’s just as effective.
Blame the architects
The hidden factor is the trend toward domed stadia.
A generation ago the NFL had a couple domes. Today there are 10 domed stadia in which 11 franchises are based, since the Rams and Chargers share a field with a lid. Another dome is in the works for the Titans in Nashville.
Praise be to the football gods that Buffalo’s new stadium will be an outdoor field!
But think of how domes shift the balance. Today one-third of NFL teams are not concerned with ball-control running in bad weather. And so again the running back declines in value.
Every NFL general manager wants the best possible player at every position, including a top running back. But the salary cap forces teams to prioritize positions, and absent rules changes, that suggests a weak market for running backs for years to come. High school tailbacks – ask the coach to switch you to defensive end!
Tuesday Morning Quarterback reboot just a month away
Hope you enjoyed this Tuesday Morning Quarterback smackerel. On Tuesday, September 5, TMQ returns weekly through the next Super Bowl.
Each week Tuesday Morning Quarterback will post on – well, if you can’t figure it out, I’m not going to tell you.
Each week will also have an All Predictions Wrong on a subject unrelated to the NFL. I am aware that many people don’t like football, often with good reason, and want to make this space welcoming to everyone.
From now on almost all posts will be subscription-only. Paid subscriptions support my work, both my Substacks and my literary writing – thank you!
Also, paid subscriptions allow Substack to decline advertising, avoiding conflicts of interest and not clogging your screens with flashing stuff.
And now to really make it feel like TMQ, something completely silly!
With Hollywood writers on strike, Tuesday Morning Quarterback Enterprises hired a few to spin out a bootleg treatment for a pitch to Paramount, Star Trek: The Nth Generation.
To refine the pitch they met in a bar with a priest and a rabbi. So a striking Hollywood writer, a priest and a rabbi walk into a bar…
My joke for this situation is at the end of the newsletter. Propose your own joke, so long as it doesn’t end with, “That’s what she said!”
Below is the pilot episode for Star Trek: The Nth Generation. The episode is titled,
Where No [Insert Gender Based on C-Suite Mood Swings] Has Gone Before
DISCOVERED: BRIDGE OF THE ENTERPRISE. CAPTAIN LaSONIA ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN IN COMMAND. (She is steely and forceful, yet warm and vulnerable.)
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
Captain’s log, stardate 117159.7. The Enterprise is enroute to the Aldebaran system, in pursuit of Hirogen raiders who stole Hillary Clinton’s emails and Donald Trump’s tax returns, which were finally found in the year 2346. The FBI had no way of knowing, just no way, they were in a file cabinet labeled MISSING EMAILS AND TAX RETURNS.
ENSIGN SSSSSSSSSS, NAVIGATOR (A sentient lizard from the Ross 248 system, where heteronormativity is banned.)
Captain, in the vastness of Milky Way, which is 105,700 light years in diameter and 99.999999 percent void, once again we find ourselves directly in the path of another ship.
A gigantic space battlecruiser is seen menacing Enterprise, which is the Federation’s new Prius-class starship, with powerful temporal transducers but no room for luggage or groceries.
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
Battle stations! Yellow alert!
POLITICAL COMMISSAR (Handsome and intelligent, the commissar is praised by everyone. Really, I swear that’s what I wrote in the first draft! Please don’t drag me away!)
Yellow alert is an offensive phrase. I will require you to attend a struggle session after this battle ends.
“Scotty! We need more biodiesel!”
COMMUNICATIONS OFFICER (A beautiful woman from New Hackensack on the Ujamaa World.)
They’re hailing us.
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
Open a channel.
COMMUNICATIONS OFFICER
I mean they’re hailing us on a ride-sharing app.
STRANGE ALIEN VOICE
We are the Dreck. Surrender and we will give you a bar code for two-for-one Jello shots at all cantinas in this sector. Otherwise prepare to die.
S’CONE, THE SCIENCE OFFICER (From a planet where everyone suppresses emotions, except during NFL games.)
They’re arming weapons.
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
Charge phasers!
CHIEF ENGINEER (A dashing black man from New New Orleans on Sirius Three; speaks with a thick Scottish accent)
We dinna canno fire phasers! We’ve no power! Dinna have no power, cap’n!
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
I demand an explanation! Without using the words “tachyon,” “subspace” or “chromatron.”
SCIENCE OFFICER S’CONE (speaks without emotion)
Since the Federation banned dilithium crystals and insisted on EV starships using electricity from the stellar wind, weapons performance has been problematic.
ENSIGN SSSSSSSSSS
The batteries are always low. Don’t believe what Starfleet claims about how many parsecs per charge! We should use lesssssssssssss air conditioning, and not play the opening theme music so loud.
COMMUNICATIONS OFFICER
At the last charging station there were Klingon, Andorian and Trill vessels already in line, so we didn’t have time to wait. It takes three weeks to build up enough batteries for warp speed, after all. (Looks at tricorder.) There is a charging station available right now on the sanctuary moon of Aldebaran Six. But it doesn’t accept our credit card. I will text them about Venmo.
ENSIGN SSSSSSSSSS
The alien is firing!
POLITICAL COMMISSAR
Alien is an offensive term. Our culture is alien to them. And who are we to say freedom, prosperity and democracy are better than tyranny and starvation?
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
Shields up!
Bright streaks of energy as the shields block the attacker’s disruptor beams.
The main viewscreen generates artificial glare, harming the eyes of the crew, rather than filter out brightness to produce a safe image. Sparks fly inside the bridge, though the fighting is on the outside. Everyone is thrown from side to side.
When the attack is defeated, bridge lights, viewscreens and control consoles go dark as Enterprise ship’s power fails.
ENSIGN SSSSSSSSSS
I diverted all battery power to the ssssssssssssshields, so now we can’t run anything else. Remember, our electric utility system was designed in California.
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
Scotty, can we reach Aldebaran Six on impulse?
CHIEF ENGINEER
We’ll have to! But why do you call me Scotty? My name is Limbani.
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
Scan the enemy ship! I want to know why they have so much more power than we do.
SCIENCE OFFICER S’CONE (looks at his instruments)
They are burning natural gas, and without carbon taxes.
Everyone on the bridge is shocked and horrified.
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
This is what we came out into space to fight against! On Earth, natural gas was outlawed during the Chelsea Clinton presidency. Except for stir-fry.
SCIENCE OFFICER S’CONE
Logically we have only one option, and I say that because when I use the word “logically,” people assume I must be right.
LIMBANI
Laddie, what’s the option?
SCIENCE OFFICER S’CONE
We must travel back into the past and create a new timeline in which Federation starships are powered by locally sourced biodiesel.
EVERYONE ON THE BRIDGE IN UNISON
The Vulcan Science Academy has determined time travel is impossible.
SCIENCE OFFICER S’CONE
You just have to think outside the tesseract. For instance The Original Series episode 22, aired 1967, had the villainous Khan Noonien Singh conquering Earth in the early 1990s, then in 1997 frozen in suspended animation and exiled into deep space, to be awakened by Kirk and Spock in 2267. One of this year’s episodes of Star Trek Strange New Worlds had Enterprise crew time travel to Toronto in the present day and encounter that same Khan, who somehow was still on Earth and somehow still a teenager. This is sci-fi, you can do anything so long as the writers’ room is in your corner. Writers can be bought cheap: the whole industry depends on it. So bring the writers’ room lots of beer – whatever’s on sale – and you will get the plot outcome you want. Also bring the writers deli sandwiches from Langer’s. The Vulcan Science Academy recommends the #19 on a French roll.
CAPTAIN ABDUL-WASSERSTEIN
The time travel plan – make it so. But we must be really careful when we’re in the past so we don’t alter history, because –
Suddenly everything disappears in a swirl of special effects.
Bonus: My Writer-Rabbi-Priest Joke. So a striking Hollywood writer, a rabbi and a priest walk into a bar. The priest orders a goblet of red wine. The rabbi orders scotch, but with people suffering in the Middle East, she’s so conflicted she can’t really enjoy her drink. The Hollywood writer says, “I’ll have what she’s having!”
Anyone with an entry for “So a striking Hollywood writer, a priest and a rabbi walk into a bar” – put it in the comments.
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