Tuesday Morning Quarterback week continues

AFC draft preview, plus it can be mean, and inaccurate, to mock a failed player as a “bust”

Some AFC club is sure to spend its first draft pick on a bust. Considering hundreds of NFL scouts, tens of thousands of hours of studied film – big colleges now film practices as well as games, and scouts can access the practice footage – considering incredible detail from the Combine (wondering which defensive end did best in the three-cone drill?) there is still guesswork and still highly drafted gents who belly flop.

But injuries don’t create a bust. Bad luck, bad timing, being over-drafted, going into a bad situation – many NFL teams are dysfunctional despite lavish spending – or lack of effort make for busts. Getting hurt is another matter.

Many first-round choices the sportsyak world calls busts were victims of injuries, and there but by the grace of God go you and I.

TMQ’s secret lair by cartoonist Kurt Snibbe.

Ryan Leaf, second selection of the 1998 draft, is perhaps the most-mocked bust, and on the field in the NFL, he was awful. He was injured in his rookie and sophomore seasons, tried to play through pain, caused the injuries to get worse. He became addicted to painkillers, and made bad choices about pills. We’ll never know how he might have performed had his luck been good. Today he represents a sobriety organization. He’s owned up to his failings. How many can say the same?

Ki-Jana Carter and Steve Emtman were first-overall picks who are on every bust list because they never played well. Both almost immediately had injury problems in the NFL.

JaMarcus Russell was a first-overall choice who never played well; he entered the NFL addicted to codeine, and failed to get clean. Rashaan Salam of the Bears, and James Hardy of the Bills, were highly drafted players who were stars in college but not in the pros. Both had injury and drug problems, both took their own lives from the shame of being called busts everywhere they went. Salaam shot himself to death near the field in at the University of Colorado where crowds chanted his name. Hardy threw himself into a river near the high school where he’d been a celebrity in youth.

People who reach the top in all walks of life have talent or charisma; people who don’t may possess the same, but also have bad luck. As draft week begins in earnest, when you hear smug sportsyakkers on ESPN and podcasts ridiculing busts, remember, there but by the grace of God go you and I.

Baltimore. In Baltimore they love Vaccaro’s cannoli and they love stockpiling extra draft picks. Last year Baltimore picked six times in the fourth round. In 2021, the Ravens had extra choices in the third and fifth rounds. In 2020, four picks in the third round. From trading back and working the NFL’s fog-shrouded compensatory pick system, year after year, the Baltimore Ravens have more extra choices than anybody.

Does it matter? On the field the Ravens play regresses to the mean, as a statistician would say. Consistently Baltimore has a power defense and solid run game, an erratic passing attack. Does not seem to matter how many draft choices are thrown at this situation.

The feeling among many is the Ravens are hoping Lamar Jackson signs with somebody else, which would solve their complicated relationship with the Louisville star by sending him elsewhere in return for giving Baltimore what it covets most, even more draft choices.

Baltimore does not have a second rounder this year because on Halloween the Ravens traded it to Chicago for Roquan Smith who signed a new deal with Baltimore that made him the NFL’s highest paid linebacker. Smith is good but was available for just a second-round choice, which tells you most teams don’t think much of his me-first mindset.

Buffalo. The Bills had one of the most emotionally exhausting seasons in the annals of team sports. Multiple star players injured with ambulances out on the field four times; young brother of a starter dies suddenly; blizzards hit the city back-to-back forcing the Bills to fly around the country looking for a place to play; then the scary Damar Hamlin incident. By the postseason the Bills were out of gas, losing a playoff game at home for only the second time in franchise history.

It was the third consecutive year the Bills defense posted outstanding regular season stats then in the postseason couldn’t stop a stiff breeze. In the 2020, 2021 and 2022 regular seasons, the Buffalo defense was at or near the top in points allowed, yards allowed and first downs allowed. In the playoff losses ending those years the Buffalo defense gave up an average of 36 points and 30 first downs.

Sure in the playoffs every opponent is good, which is not true of the regular season. But Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier seemed to get the yips in the playoffs, calling hyper-conservative fronts. He practically opened the Bills-Bengals playoff contest in a prevent defense, corners far backed-off. The result was 30 first downs allowed, which kept Josh Allen on the sideline.

Frazier’s name had been mentioned for the coaching carousel. Bills Mafia were hoping he’d get a head coach slot elsewhere, so he could leave with dignity (and the Bills would receive an extra draft pick from the league). Frazier’s market collapsed when the Buffalo defense was torched by Cincinnati. Now Frazier is on a year-long sabbatical, and head coach Sean McDermott will call defensive fronts. He’s aggressive, so the Mafia is hopeful.

A suspect offense line is this team’s Achilles Heel. Draft capital and free agency money has gone to other positions. Bills management seems to assume that since Allen is so hard to tackle, he can scramble around and paper over a bad offensive line. But that means taking hits that can shorten his career.

McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane both were at the Carolina Panthers when they made the Super Bowl with Cam Newton. That team also had a subpar offensive line, also had a quarterback who was really hard to tackle. The constant hits shortened Newton’s career. Buffalo better use some draft capital on blockers this month, or Allen’s may be shortened too.

Sked note: last season the Bills lost a home game to one of the blizzards, playing the contest in Detroit. Next season the Bills lose a home game to a London date.

Cincinnati. During those awful January moments when Damar Hamlin was receiving CPR on the field in Cincinnati, Bengals players and coached behaved with dignity, not objecting to Buffalo’s request that the game be called – remember, Cincinnati was ahead at the time.

Credit has gone to Bengals players and coaches for their demeanor, but ought to go to the Cincinnati home crowd too. No boos or catcalls. Spectators watched in perfect silence as medical personnel revived Hamlin, then revived him a second time. When the P.A. announced the game was called, those in the stands gathered their possessions and quietly filed out. If there were an award for best crowd reaction, it would go to Cincinnati Bengals seasons ticket holders.

After the game was called and couldn’t be made up, the league concocted a seeding format that openly favored Buffalo over Cincinnati. The rationale was that cancelling the game cost the Bills their shot at winning the first seed. But Cincinnati also had a shot at the first seed, also lost by the cancellation.

Bengals players steamed when, a few days before their playoff date in Buffalo, the NFL began printing tickets for a Kansas City-Buffalo title contest in Atlanta.

Every head coach’s favorite motivator is, “They don’t respect you.” The league had shown it didn’t respect the Bengals, who played with intensity in upsetting the Bills and making the ducats worthless. “Get a refund! Get a refund!” Bengals players gleefully shouted as the game ended.

The Bengals have made consecutive AFC title games, replacing the Bills as Kansas City’s big rival. The 2022 Kansas City-Cincinnati conference title game went into overtime and the 2023 would have too if not for a (correct)l ate flag that positioned the Flintstones for a winning field goal.

During free agency Cincinnati added left tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who was brilliant for the Chiefs in the Super Bowl (see below). Brown has an abrasive personality, wearing out his welcome at the Ravens and then Chiefs. We’ll see how long he lasts at Cincinnati.

Cleveland. In one of the strangest decisions ever in sports management, Cleveland invested three first-round draft choices, additional picks, and $230 million guaranteed in suspended quarterback Deshaun Watson.

So far Cleveland’s yield on that deal is three total victories. The Watson trade rivals in pure dumbness Elon Musk losing $20 billion in a single year on Twitter, for no matter what Mina Kimes says, wins are a quarterback stat.

The Browns win column needs to light up for the Watson deal to make sense. With the Browns already having spent their first- and second-round choices this year, and first-rounder next year, lots of wins seem unlikely.

Denver. Russell Wilson has looked terrible with the Broncos. In the offseason new head coach Sean Payton signed offensive linemen. One of TMQ’s immutable laws of football holds, All Quarterbacks Suddenly Become More Talented When the Blocking Is Good.

So Wilson’s play may improve. But the Denver roster, strip-mined in the Wilson and Payton acquisitions, may not.

To acquire Wilson and Payton, Denver gave up three first-round picks, three second-round picks, other draft choices, two starting-quality players and about $250 million in contract guarantees. The deals came shortly after Walmart heir Sam Walton purchased the Broncos. Is this how Walmart markets defective products?

Broncs note: Wilson’s middle name is Carrington. Wouldn’t “R. Carrington Wilson” make a great name for a college president?

Houston. in a harmonic convergence, the Houston Rockets and Houston Texans started tanking at the same time.

If the Rockets’ tank job results in a tall French guy, no one will ever complain about the lost seasons. As regards the Texans – two first choices in 2022, two in this draft, two more in the 2024 draft – it is time, as is said in the Lone Star State, to gitter done.

Indianapolis. From 1998 to 2018 this franchise was a model of stability at quarterback, Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck under center, both similar athletes playing the same style in the same offense.

Then the Colts went wacky with Jacoby Brissett, Phil Rivers, Carson Wentz and Matt Ryan at quarterback in successive years. And it’ll be somebody new in 2023 – they will never forget you till somebody else comes along!

That will make five straight seasons with a major quarterback change.

We think of the Colts as a top notch organization because of their streak, including under Tony Dungy, of 14 playoff appearances in 16 years, capped by a Super Bowl crown. But Indy made the postseason only twice in the last eight campaigns, with just one victory. This is a troubled team.

Punters Note: Indianapolis is on an 0-8 streak at Jacksonville. Not that I condone wagering!

Matt Ryan note: Since trotting onto the field with a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl, Ryan is 40-53-1.

Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL, and he’s pretty funny in commercials too. The Chiefs have won two of the last four Super Bowls. They haven’t lost by a touchdown or more since October 2021.

Kansas City had good luck with calls (decisive late calls against Cincinnati and Philadelphia in the postseason, both calls correct, the point is they got them) and fewest starter-games missed in 2022 (often the last team standing had the fewest injuries). Also they are, um, pretty good.

The Chiefs offensive line should have been the Super Bowl MVP. Facing the Eagles, number-one sack defense in 2022, Kansas City blockers did not allow a sack. It’s true the surface was slick, and that favors blocking (pass rushers can’t get push). But most of the time the Chiefs offensive line didn’t have help, not even a back chipping off. Five Kansas City blockers versus the best sack defense and the blockers’ win rate was near perfect. Of course the TV talking heads didn’t notice. But aficionados should.

Kansas City’s great offensive line day was the outcome of one of the canniest trades in NFL annals, the summer 2021 transaction in which the Chiefs sent their number-one choice to Baltimore for left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and the Ravens’ number-two pick. (There were also minor considerations.) Kansas City came away with a Pro Bowl left tackle and linebacker Nick Bolton, who was terrific in the Super Bowl; Baltimore came away with Odafe Oweh.

This winter in free agency the Chiefs allowed both their offensive tackles to walk, Brown to Cincinnati and Andrew Wylie to the Washington [INSERT THIS WEEK’S NAME], where he will never be heard from again.

Kansas City then signed Jawaan Taylor of Jax to play the blindside, giving him a larger contract than Brown wanted. It’s an odd move. But when Mahomes is your quarterback, odd moves can work.

Note: in the last two Super Bowls, Rams over Bengals and Chiefs over Eagles, a late flag has been the decisive snap for the winners. Both times the call was correct. Still, think about the earlier calls that weren’t correct… 

Photo by Gene Gallin on Unsplash

LA/B. To TMQ, the Giants are Jersey/A (first to move) and the Jets are Jersey/B. By the same convention the Rams are LA/A and the Chargers LA/B.

Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is a favorite of football buffs because he often keeps the offense on the field when others send out the punter. But he doesn’t have much to show for it, no playoffs wins so far.

This January in the playoffs, LA/B suffered the worst meltdown since Atlanta led 28-3 in the Super Bowl and lost. Versus Jax, LA/B took a 27-0 lead and lost.

From ahead 27-0, had the Chargers simply run up the middle for no gain on every play, victory was assured.

Instead Staley kept radioing in passing plays – 11 incompletions after reaching the 27-0 margin. Throws that clang incomplete stop the clock. Jax kicked a field goal for the winning points as time expired. Even one run for no gain rather than an incompletion would have won the game for the Chargers! 

As the season unfolds, Tuesday Morning Quarterback will explore the mentality by which NFL coaches with big leads lose those leads by continuing to throw the ball.

Note: when the Chargers went ahead 27-0, ESPN said they had a “98.7 percent” chance to win. Love the fake precision!

Las Vegas. In 2018 when Jon Gruden signed his “10 year” contract to coach the Raiders, one of my kids and I had a bet on how long “10 years” would last. I said three years, my kid said four years and won as Gruden was booted in 2021. Anyway had that been an actual 10-year contract, Gruden would have four years remaining in Sin City.

Gruden’s lawsuit against the NFL remains in legal stalling tactics. Nobody sympathizes with a crummy guy like Gruden, who insulted staffers, baristas, you name it. (How a wealthy person treats those who make far less than he is a metric of character.) Yet it seems obvious someone at a senior level of the NFL leaked private emails in order to harm Gruden. Even a crummy man deserves his day in court.

This season the Raiders have ex-Patriot Jimmy Garappolo at quarterback coached by ex-Patriot Josh McDaniels. Vegas just traded Darren Waller, one of its best players, to Jersey/A for only a third-round pick, suggesting the franchise has entered tanking mode. Maybe they hope to get Victor Wembanyama and convert him to tight end. 

Jacksonville. Once Jax got the odious Urban Meyer out of its system, the Jaguars showed out, going 7-2 down the stretch and giving eventual champion Kansas City a game in the playoffs. They’re a team to watch in the upcoming campaign.

Wide receiver Calvin Ridley has been reinstated by the league and will play in 2023. How much he plays will determine how much draft capital Jacksonville owes the Falcons. Ridley did not make excuses, instead owning up. When a person owns up, that is a positive sign.

And just what did he do? Wagered on the NFL. Exactly what NBC, ESPN, Fox Sports and the NFL itself urges you to do.

Last season NBC had its football announcers urging viewers to place bets. Not in advertisements, during in-game during coverage. ESPN has a TV show dedicated to urging people to lose money betting on sports. Several NFL stadia will have on-site sportsbooks this season. The same NFL that suspended Ridley for betting now has “tri-exclusive” (whatever that means) sports betting partners. Average people cannot lose money on wagers fast enough to please the taxpayer-subsidized billionaires of the NFL.

Of course if Ridley wants to be an NFL player, he must follow the league’s internal rules. Many organizations impose on their own members rules that don’t apply to the public at large. (The Supreme Court is the other way around – it exempts itself from rules, while sending people to prison for the slightest misstep.) But it’s more than mere two-facedness that Ridley was severely punished (he lost $11 million in pay) while the tax-subsidized billionaires do as they please to the hired help.

Miami. To Tua or not to Tua – that is the question. At times last season, Tua Tagovailoa looked like the real deal; also he had orthopedic injuries and concussions. His health may determine the direction of the Marine Mammals (dolphins are not fish) season.

A few years ago the Rams said “F--- them draft picks” and the result was a Lombardi Trophy. The Dolphins are using the same colorful metaphor, burning   picks like crazy to obtain Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and Jalen Ramsey. The Marine Mammals also had their first choice in next week’s draft revoked by the league over tampering. (That’s why there are only 31 selections in the first round this year.)

Miami has been spending money as well, causing cap problems. So if Tua doesn’t pan out or suffers more head trauma, Miami lacks the draft capital or salary cap space to make a move for a new franchise quarterback.

Perennial Pro Bowler Ramsey was obtained from LA/A for just a third-round choice. This means no other team bid a second-round choice, owing to the weight of Ramsey’s contract.

New England. For years sports nuts debated whether the Patriots fantastic run was mainly the head coach or mainly the quarterback. Now that debate is settled – Tom Brady left and immediately won another ring, Bill Belichick doesn’t have a playoff victory since.

In addition to losing his Midas touch with the postseason, Belichick, who is essentially the Patriots general manager, hasn’t done well with the draft or free agency. In winter 2021 he handed out almost $100 million in free agent contracts with little to show for it.

Belichick needs two more solid seasons to pass Don Shula and become the all-time NFL wins leader. Can he finish this marathon?

Whenever something mysterious happens in the league, the world or for that matter along the plane of the ecliptic, your writer mutters to himself, “Belichick is behind this somehow.” When will I say this first in the 2023 season? The over/under is United Nations Day, which this year falls on October 24^th.

New Jersey Jets. It’s been 12 years since Jersey/B has made a postseason appearance, the longest such drought in major pro sports. Yet the Jets don’t seem in any hurry to work out a trade for Aaron Rodgers, and there’s hardly any assurance that if they do, Ws will follow. Everyone remembers what happened the last time the Jets acquired a fading Packers quarterback.

The Jets are the Jets, so, there’s no explaining their decision making. Still their recent track record leaves one’s head spinning.

In the 2018 draft, Jersey/B used the third overall choice on Sam Darnold, who soon was run out of town on a rail. Not only did the Jets pass on Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, they staged a major trade-up, surrendering a lot of draft capital, to get into position to choose the wrong guy.

In the 2021 draft Jersey/B employed the second overall choice on Zach Wilson, passing on Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle, and has already given up on Wilson though he hasn’t played much. The team’s coaches and front office have said so many disparaging things about Wilson it’s hard to imagine him bouncing back in the swamps of Jersey, yet they’ve also undercut any trade value he might have had.

The Jets are the Jets, so, there’s no explaining their decision making.

Pittsburgh. The Steelers hold the first pick of the second round, obtained from Chicago for Chase Claypool, who’s been a disappointment for the Bears.

The top of the second round is a great place to be in the contemporary NFL draft structure, because athletes available there are about the same as the bottom of the first round, but the salary cap ramifications are notably less. The Bears were foolhardy to surrender this pick for a JAG – “just another guy” – but then bad Bears trades are a running theme of this century.

Pittsburgh struggled early last season and was written off after a 38-3 rollover at Buffalo. But the Steelers rallied and went 6-1 down the stretch, though none of the wins were over playoff-bound clubs.

Mike Tomlin has been the Pittsburgh head coach for 16 years, and is only 51 years old.

The Steelers’ field is now Acrisure Stadium, a naming deal that pretty much guarantees whatever Acrisure is, it will soon be out of business. But rest easy -- the giant ketchup bottle is back.

Tennessee. Sportsyak forgets that following the 2021 season the Titans held the first seed in the AFC. After the bye they were thumped in the opening round at home, by the Bengals. Since then it’s been all downhill for Tennessee, including a 0-7 streak to end the 2022 season.

Amy Strunk, daughter of the late Bud Adams, is the managing general partner for the ownership group of the Titans, known to TMQ as the Flaming Thumbtacks. (Check their helmet logo.) She has made or approved a series of head-scratcher decisions.

Tennessee traded second- and fourth-round choices for Julio Jones. The Titans still haven’t finished paying the bill for that transaction in draft terms, but they’ve finished with Jones, whom they waived almost immediately. Last winter the Flaming Thumbtacks traded AJ Brown, a young star, to the Eagles to avoid having to offer him a contract extension. Philadelphia did so gladly, and Brown was a factor in its Super Bowl run.

Until Strunk and her investors reconcile themselves with the economics of the modern NFL, things could be bleak for this club. An owner should feel good about developing a young player who performs so well he merits a huge raise. That’s not how Tennessee feels.

Bonus: Dr. Green and Mr. Hyde. Draymond Green getting himself tossed from the fourth quarter of a close game in Sacramento, then suspended for the next game, may cost Golden State its chance at another title.

The Warriors season got off on the wrong foot over the summer when Green punched teammate Jordan Poole. It may end on the wrong foot because of Green’s inability to control himself.

Green may be nursing bitterness over his decision, four years ago, to take a less-than-max contract extension, freeing up cap space the team could spend on others, including Poole. But no one put a gun to Green’s head. And if he’d suffered a career-ending injury – no small risk given his age and style of play – taking that 2019 deal, and its guarantee, would have seemed a Warren Buffett-class financial move.

Your writer has talked with Green at ESPN events and found him well-informed, reflective, warm-hearted. He’s one of my favorite basketball players to watch because he does most of his work off the ball. (Michael Jordan: “A good player is good with the ball, a great player is good without the ball.”) If the NBA kept stats for back picks, Green would be the all-time leader. A lot of today’s NBA stars don’t even know what a back pick is.

So why can’t a smart hardworking guy like Green learn to control himself? Maybe he needs some of the serum Dr. Henry Jekyll devised to prevent anger. Wait, that didn’t work out too well.